PEPPER: Pedro Out. Takes foreign-born players with him

The Mets needed two pitchers with no questions. They needed Johan Santana to get off to a good start. Check. They needed Pedro Martinez to stay in one piece.

Not so much.


Pulled his hamstring; Mets pulled their pennant hopes

As a Cubs fan, I'm tempted to point out that Jason Marquis is available. But then he's going to Baltimore in the Brian Roberts deal, which both teams are trying to get done before Opening Day. 2013, that is.

Meanwhile, the number of foreign-born players in MLB is down. And it's down even more when you account for the fact that Puerto Rico is -- ahem -- part of the United States.

The Dominican Republic had the most with 88 -- a decrease of 10. It was followed by Venezuela (52), Puerto Rico (29), Japan (16), Canada (14), Mexico (11), Cuba (eight), Panama (five), Australia (four), Taiwan (three), Colombia, Curacao and South Kwo apiece), and the Netherlands, Nicaragua and the U.S. Virgin Islands (one apiece). [Any error sic]

That said, who knew Taiwan was a baseball hotbed? At least if China invades, baseball will be able to look for more refugees in the future. Though the boat ride's a little longer than from Cuba, no?


Tom Tancredo hears that number of dangerous illegal immigrants in baseball is down.

Average salary: $3.15 million. Something to remember the next time a baseball player says it's not about the money. Which will happen the next time a player signs a multiyear, nine-figure deal.

Meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez makes more than the Marlins. The entire team. And he'll make even more if Sam Zell convinces him to sell his naming rights. (And now, playing third for the Yankees, the Budweiser Alex Rodriguez.)

Cubs 100 Watch. Moises Alou says he wouldn't have caught the Bartman ball. Of course not. If Bartman hadn't gotten in the way, the goat would have.

WHY I DON'T BELIEVE CANSECO

Admit it: When Jose Canseco first came out with his allegations in Juiced, you didn't know whether to believe him or not.

But then came the Palmeiro test results, the existential testimony of Mark McGwire ("I'm not here to talk about the past," he told a Congressional committee probing the past), and the general sleaziness that has surrounded the Mitchell Report and the Roger Clemens "did-he-or-didn't-he" and "did-she-or-didn't-she" farce.

And then Canseco, the steriods decrier turned acknowledged steroids user, somehow gained instant credibility.


The star witness.

So credible is he that reasonably smart baseball people are now wondering whether we should take his second book, Vindicated, seriously.

Do you believe the lug-head prose of Canseco in his latest potboiler? Canseco is the 43-year-old lounge act who is scarily comfortable in his skin as a smarmy opportunist while outing his old syringe buddies' dark secrets, this time in Vindicated. A-Rod is his current target.
"He's not who he portrays himself to be," Canseco said in a recent phone interview with SI. "He's a phony.... He's a talented individual -- and I'll say he's the best player in baseball -- but did he use steroids? Yes, I believe he did."
Do you buy the artful A-Rod's boilerplate no-comment reply to Canseco last week? ...
Is there anyone who can tell honesty from hyperbole? Is there an angel of mercy who can save baseball from the kind of joyless epic of innuendo that accompanied Barry Bonds on his way to Hank Aaron's record and threatens to do the same along A-Rod's path to trump Bonds?

Now, I am one of those fuddy-duddies who believes it actually does matter if a player uses steroids, that it is a form of cheating that should be banned from the game.

But let's take this from a common sense perspective. Jose Canseco has incriminating steroids information about Rafael Palmeiro, an aging player past his prime, and Alex Rodriguez, one of the biggest starts in the game about to enter the high point of his career. So in his first book, certainly only that there will be a first book, Canseco names Palmeiro and decides to leave the A-Rod stuff out?

Nobody's saying that Canseco has an MBA, but even Bear Stearns has better business sense than that. The sequel always sucks; you put the good stuff in the first book.

The first book's credibility is, in my mind, weak on the particulars but strong on the basics. McGwire and Palmeiro did, in all probability, use steroids in front of Canseco.

But the second book smacks of opportunism and a sick craving for the spotlight. Let's wait for more proof before believing that a man whose moral compass is severely flawed is now an oracle.

ANOTHER SHOT BEGINS WITH PREDICTIONS

It begins again.

After several months' hiatus -- has it really been a year and a half? -- I'm taking another go at Ivy Walls. It will be reinvented to a degree -- I'm actually going to try to post on a regular basis, and it will be an MLB blog with a Cubs tint to it -- and will hopefully be much funnier and better written. (Thus the deletion of all the posts except the farewell to Maddux, which is poignant, and the Jim Bowden columns, which are truly bizarre.)

And now, on Opening Day for everyone not located in Washington, D.C. or Tokyo, predictions. (And, yes, I'm dumping the Bizarroworld approach from 2006.)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

National League East:
What do you do with the National League East? The Mets have Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez and ... and ... hey, can Johan pitch on two days' rest? The Phillies have Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer (whose first start was attended by Abraham Lincoln) as the bulwark of their rotation. And the Braves have a pretty good rotation, while the bullpen ... the bullpen ... well, they can't lose every game, can they?

Then there are the Nationals, whose decision to start Ronnie Belliard should tell you everything you know, and the Marlins, who are a walking argument for contraction.

Prediction: 1. Phillies, 2. Braves (wild card), 3. Mets, 4. Nationals, 5. Marlins

National League Central:
And yet the Central is known as the weakest division in baseball. What's sad is that it might actually be the weakest division in baseball. The Cubs can pitch and hit, but have an uncanny ability to never do both at the same time. The Brewers' season could ride on how well Jeff Suppan can pitch. The Cardinals are, to put it charitably, rebuilding. The Astros are putting together whatever players attract the front office's attention. (Ooooh. Kaz Matsui. Shiny.) And the Pirates are literally trying to avoid tying the MLB record for consecutive winning seasons. On, and Cincinnati has him.

Prediction: 1. Cubs, 2. Brewers, 3. Reds, 4. Astros, 5. Cardinals, 6. Pirates

National League West:
This might be the strongest division in baseball. In fact, the division is likely to have four around-.500 teams and the Giants, who will likely lose in a mind-numbingly boring fashion all season long. The teams will not be around .500 because they are bad, but because they beat each others' brains out. The Diamondbacks picked up Dan Haren, the Rockies got no worse (and maybe better), the Dodgers (who won 82 games last year) got Joe Torre and the Padres are the Padres, meaning they will win at least 82 games. It's actually in the MLB bylaws.

Prediction: 1. Diamondbacks, 2. Dodgers, 3. Padres, 4. Rockies, 5. Giants

First round: CUBS beat Braves; DIAMONDBACKS beat Phillies
Second round: DIAMONDBACKS beat Cubs

AMERICAN LEAGUE

American League East:
Maybe it's just me, but the Yankees seem old. I almost expect them to announce that John McCain will be batting cleanup. In the meantime, the Red Sox didn't even have to do much reloading, the Blue Jays won 83 games last year and only improved, the Rays will at least win most of their games against the Yankees, and the Orioles will continue to see how much they can extract from Jim Hendry for Brian Roberts. (Okay. I'll throw in my first-born son. Is that enough?)

Prediction: 1. Red Sox, 2. Blue Jays, 3. Yankees, 4. Rays, 5. Orioles

American League Central:
If the NL West isn't the toughest division in baseball, this is. The Tigers have a lineup that scares small children, the Indians have a bunch of oddly-named but solid players, the Twins are the Twins and the White Sox are always a threat as long as their manager is a raving lunatic who might pummel your No. 1 starter. Then there are the Royals, who are improving for the 12th straight year.

Prediction: 1. Tigers, 2. Indians (wild card), 3. Twins, 4. White Sox, 5. Royals

American League West:
The Angels looked good until their rotation began to resemble a Quentin Tarantino movie and their outfielders began to regard shallow fly balls as scientific phenomena to be observed but undisturbed. The Mariners would have won the NL Central last year -- before Erik Bedard. The As make the Cardinals look like they're trying to win right now, while the Rangers will continue to be known as "that team that used to have Nolan Ryan in the twilight of his career."

Prediction: 1. Mariners, 2. Angels, 3. Rangers, 4. As

First round: RED SOX beat Indians; TIGERS beat Mariners
Second round: RED SOX beat Tigers

WORLD SERIES: RED SOX beat Diamondbacks

FAREWELL TO AN ARM

I was hoping the news wouldn't come, but it did.


Thanks for the memories, Greg.

BOWDEN (HICCUP) WRITES AGAIN

The more I read Jim Bowden's columns for the Washington Examiner, the more I'm inclined to say that he is, indeed, hitting the bottle pretty hard when he "writes" his weekly spiel. Or dictates it to someone from the Examiner. Or allows his byline to be attached to something written by the Examiner ...


Jim Bowden's ghost writer.

For those not following Ivy Walls, Jimmy Boy is something of a favorite of mine. I covered his motor mishap in Florida. And I provide a valuable service by occassionally highlighting his bizarre arrangement with the Examiner.

But the latest column shows that Bowden has lost all touch with reality. For example:

But the question remains for all clubs: With the high failure rate of first-round high school pitchers, do you take him anyway? Remember, that’s how the Cubs got Kerry Wood. But for every Kerry Wood there are even more Brien Taylors and Todd Van Poppels.

One could argue that for every Kerry Wood, there is a Kerry Wood. Yes, it's nice to have one of the most dominating arms in the game in your organization. But it's even nicer if he could, you know, pitch every once in a while.

But not content with showing a lack of knowledge about baseball, Bowden then shows he is totally immune to the bounds of fact:

The top college baseball position players have been well publicized. Evan Longoria, the shortstop from Long Beach State, will be long gone before we can even consider him. He is the surest position player likely to reach the big leagues. And yes, he is somehow related to actress Eva Longoria from “Desperate Housewives” which should be enough reason to draft him.

It is important to note that there is nothing in this sentence to suggest that his comment is a joke. Why? Because at least two sources (including the MLB Web site), note that Evan Longoria is not, in fact, related to Eva Longoria. So where in the hell did Bowden even come up with this?


Sadly, not available in the draft.

The Examiner should follow social credo before letting Bowden pick up a pen again:

Friends don't let friends write drunk.

BOWDEN CALLS 'EM OUT

When not racking up DUI charges, Nationals GM Jim Bowden apparently has time to write a newspaper column in the Washington Examiner. And the latest installment is an example of why ball clubs should never, ever let their general managers do this. To his credit, Bowden minces no words and cuts to the chase:

WASHINGTON - Our dismal start can be directly blamed on pitching, one of the most difficult areas of a baseball team to predict.

Well, Jim, way to rally the troops there!

But apparently not being one deal in generalities, Bowden quickly moves to specifics:

Our Opening Day starter, Livan Hernandez, is 1-4 with a 6.52 ERA despite being healthy. This is the same pitcher who won 11 straight games at one point last season and would have won 20 if not for his knee injury.
Our No. 2 starter, John Patterson, is 1-0 and on the disabled list. We hope to have him back in early June.

Bowden is also not content to limit his criticism to his own team. No, there are old scores to settle:

This offseason, despite criticism, we decided not to match Oakland’s $22 million offer to Esteban Loaiza, our No. 3 starter last season. Does that decision haunt us? No. He is 0-3 with an 8.35 ERA and on the disabled list.
Our No. 4 starter this season was supposed to be Hector Carrasco. But we decided not to match the nearly $8 million deal he received from the Angels. By the way, Carrasco has yet to win a single game for them.

So there.

We took a low-risk gamble on two other free agents: Tony Armas, Jr., who is now 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA and has been our best starter; and Ramon Ortiz, who is 0-4 and has been our worst starter.

Make sure you do well on your next start, Ramon.

Now for the bullpen:

Mike O’Connor was called up from Class AAA New Orleans and is 2-1. He would have won a third game if the bullpen didn’t blow a ninth-inning lead.

Oops. Forget to mention another pitcher who's not on the Nationals...

Oh, and what if A.J. Burnett had accepted our four-year offer? Like Loaiza, Burnett hasn’t won a game for his new team, the Blue Jays, and is on the disabled list ... again. Remember, he got close to $55 million for five years.

Back to the bullpen. (It appears that, as the column went on, Jim was hitting the bottle and had trouble focusing.)

Let’s now look at the bullpen. Our closer, Chad Cordero, has given up six home runs in 17 innings and his ERA is 4.58. Gary Majewski has allowed 12 walks in 22 innings. Luis Ayala is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. That trio was primarily responsible for all our one-run wins last year and first place status last July. Mike Stanton has been solid, as has Rauch. Felix Rodriguez’s ERA is 6.33. Joey Eischen’s is 10.45.

What does all of this mean, Jim?

For us to turn this season around and become competitive again, our proven pitchers must step up and be accounted for. If not, major changes will begin to happen, sooner rather than later.

Feel good to get that off your chest? To let everybody know that you, the general manager, can hardly be held responsible for the state of the team? To make it clear that it's all somebody else's fault?

That's a relief. After all, we would want the man who makes personnel decisions to be, you know, accountable for how those players perform, would we?

Looks like Jim learned the lessons of Washington quick: The buck stops anywhere but here.